This is an R Markdown Notebook. When you execute code within the notebook, the results appear beneath the code.

Try executing this chunk by clicking the Run button within the chunk or by placing your cursor inside it and pressing Ctrl+Shift+Enter.

library(prophet)
library(readr)
library(ggplot2)
library(forecast)
Ts <- read_csv("C:/Users/meryame.boudhar/Downloads/TS_PROJECT_BOUDHAR_Meryame/f_ts.csv")
Rows: 3220 Columns: 3── Column specification ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Delimiter: ","
chr  (1): NAME
dbl  (1): KWH_PERIOD
date (1): BEGIN
ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.
Ts
L <- unique(split(Ts, Ts$NAME))
L
[[1]]

[[2]]

[[3]]

[[4]]

[[5]]

[[6]]

[[7]]

[[8]]

[[9]]

[[10]]

[[11]]

[[12]]

[[13]]

[[14]]

[[15]]

[[16]]

[[17]]

[[18]]

[[19]]

[[20]]

[[21]]

[[22]]

[[23]]

[[24]]

[[25]]

[[26]]

[[27]]

[[28]]

[[29]]

[[30]]

[[31]]

[[32]]

[[33]]

[[34]]

[[35]]

[[36]]

[[37]]

[[38]]

[[39]]

[[40]]

[[41]]

[[42]]

[[43]]

[[44]]

[[45]]

[[46]]

[[47]]

[[48]]

[[49]]

[[50]]

[[51]]

[[52]]

[[53]]

[[54]]

[[55]]

[[56]]

[[57]]

[[58]]

[[59]]

[[60]]

[[61]]

[[62]]

[[63]]

[[64]]

[[65]]

[[66]]

[[67]]

[[68]]

[[69]]

[[70]]

[[71]]

[[72]]

[[73]]

[[74]]

[[75]]

[[76]]

[[77]]

[[78]]

[[79]]

[[80]]

[[81]]

[[82]]

[[83]]

[[84]]

[[85]]

[[86]]

[[87]]

[[88]]

[[89]]

[[90]]

[[91]]

[[92]]
NA
for(i in 1:92){
  L_ts <- ts(L[[i]]$KWH_PERIOD, frequency = 12, start= c(2019,01,01))
  ggtsdisplay(L_ts, main = unique(L[[i]]$NAME))
}

for(i in 1:92){
  L_ts <- ts(L[[i]]$KWH_PERIOD, frequency = 12, start= c(2019,01,01))
  L_diff <- diff(L_ts)
  ggtsdisplay(L_diff, main = unique(L[[i]]$NAME))
}

#Predictions with Auto Arima

##Run a standard model

for(i in 1:92){
  L_ts <- ts(L[[i]]$KWH_PERIOD, frequency = 12, start= c(2019,01,01))
  L_arima <- auto.arima(L_ts)
  checkresiduals(L_arima)
}

    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(3,1,0) with drift
Q* = 6.3444, df = 4, p-value = 0.1749

Model df: 3.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,1) with drift
Q* = 4.0655, df = 5, p-value = 0.54

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,0,1) with non-zero mean
Q* = 2.4081, df = 6, p-value = 0.8786

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,0)[12] with drift
Q* = 4.0215, df = 6, p-value = 0.6738

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(2,1,1) with drift
Q* = 3.0223, df = 4, p-value = 0.5541

Model df: 3.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 11.302, df = 7, p-value = 0.126

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 1.7039, df = 7, p-value = 0.9744

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,1) with non-zero mean
Q* = 4.2272, df = 5, p-value = 0.5172

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(2,0,0) with non-zero mean
Q* = 6.0734, df = 5, p-value = 0.2991

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)
Q* = 1.7423, df = 6, p-value = 0.9418

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.1879, df = 6, p-value = 0.6513

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 10.865, df = 6, p-value = 0.09264

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 6.1309, df = 6, p-value = 0.4087

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 16.595, df = 7, p-value = 0.0202

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 11.21, df = 6, p-value = 0.08211

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 2.1361, df = 6, p-value = 0.9068

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 8.8654, df = 7, p-value = 0.2625

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)
Q* = 8.3623, df = 6, p-value = 0.2127

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,2,1)
Q* = 4.1519, df = 5, p-value = 0.5278

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 12.425, df = 6, p-value = 0.05314

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 1.2637, df = 7, p-value = 0.9894

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)
Q* = 7.853, df = 6, p-value = 0.2491

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0) with drift
Q* = 5.0726, df = 6, p-value = 0.5345

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 6.1988, df = 7, p-value = 0.5167

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 5.493, df = 6, p-value = 0.4823

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 2.0496, df = 6, p-value = 0.9151

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 3.2576, df = 7, p-value = 0.8602

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.8597, df = 6, p-value = 0.5619

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 15.738, df = 7, p-value = 0.02762

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.8374, df = 6, p-value = 0.5648

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,0,1) with non-zero mean
Q* = 5.545, df = 6, p-value = 0.476

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(2,0,0) with non-zero mean
Q* = 6.8961, df = 5, p-value = 0.2285

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.7472, df = 6, p-value = 0.5766

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 4.1042, df = 7, p-value = 0.7677

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 7.4139, df = 6, p-value = 0.2843

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,0,2) with non-zero mean
Q* = 4.0187, df = 5, p-value = 0.5467

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 13.773, df = 7, p-value = 0.05537

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 6.5756, df = 7, p-value = 0.4744

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 4.052, df = 6, p-value = 0.6696

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 8.0445, df = 7, p-value = 0.3287

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 9.129, df = 7, p-value = 0.2435

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.1279, df = 7, p-value = 0.7649

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.4864, df = 6, p-value = 0.6112

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 3.7512, df = 7, p-value = 0.8079

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0) with non-zero mean
Q* = 20.554, df = 6, p-value = 0.002206

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 11.049, df = 6, p-value = 0.08688

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 2.4394, df = 6, p-value = 0.8752

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 2.4946, df = 6, p-value = 0.8691

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1) with drift
Q* = 2.5885, df = 6, p-value = 0.8584

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 8.5893, df = 7, p-value = 0.2835

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)
Q* = 6.422, df = 6, p-value = 0.3776

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 3.6329, df = 7, p-value = 0.821

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 13.217, df = 6, p-value = 0.03971

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 7.5872, df = 6, p-value = 0.2699

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 6.941, df = 6, p-value = 0.3263

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,2,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 5.3514, df = 6, p-value = 0.4996

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1) with drift
Q* = 6.0911, df = 6, p-value = 0.4131

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 2.558, df = 7, p-value = 0.9227

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.6468, df = 7, p-value = 0.703

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 8.4819, df = 6, p-value = 0.2049

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 10.06, df = 7, p-value = 0.1852

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 6.553, df = 6, p-value = 0.3642

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 6.5825, df = 7, p-value = 0.4736

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 3.6599, df = 7, p-value = 0.818

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 1.0531, df = 5, p-value = 0.9582

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 13.115, df = 6, p-value = 0.04124

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 9.2991, df = 6, p-value = 0.1574

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 8.3592, df = 7, p-value = 0.302

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,0,0) with non-zero mean
Q* = 6.1732, df = 7, p-value = 0.5197

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.1762, df = 5, p-value = 0.5243

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,2,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 11.66, df = 6, p-value = 0.06999

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 8.7443, df = 7, p-value = 0.2715

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 2.0614, df = 6, p-value = 0.914

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,0)[12] with drift
Q* = 3.3423, df = 6, p-value = 0.7648

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.4354, df = 7, p-value = 0.7285

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 1.2756, df = 7, p-value = 0.9891

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 7.0316, df = 6, p-value = 0.3179

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 10.814, df = 7, p-value = 0.1469

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 5.2601, df = 7, p-value = 0.6283

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 7.4431, df = 7, p-value = 0.3842

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0) with non-zero mean
Q* = 8.1174, df = 6, p-value = 0.2296

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 5.131, df = 6, p-value = 0.5271

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 20.704, df = 7, p-value = 0.004235

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 4.8338, df = 7, p-value = 0.6802

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 4.9502, df = 6, p-value = 0.5502

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 10.317, df = 7, p-value = 0.1713

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 7.1274, df = 7, p-value = 0.4157

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 1.0352, df = 7, p-value = 0.9942

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 5.9277, df = 6, p-value = 0.4313

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 9.6719, df = 6, p-value = 0.1392

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 11.657, df = 7, p-value = 0.1124

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 8.7569, df = 6, p-value = 0.1877

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7

for(i in 1:92){
  L_ts <- ts(L[[i]]$KWH_PERIOD, frequency = 12, start= c(2019,01,01))
  L_arima <- auto.arima(L_ts)
  modelforcast <- forecast(L_arima, h = 6)
  plot(modelforcast, xlab = "Date", ylab = "KWH", sub = unique(L[[i]]$NAME))
}

Avis : Having 3 or more differencing operations is not recommended. Please consider reducing the total number of differences.

Avis : Having 3 or more differencing operations is not recommended. Please consider reducing the total number of differences.

##Improve the model

for(i in 1:92){
  L_ts <- ts(L[[i]]$KWH_PERIOD, frequency = 12, start= c(2019,01,01))
  L_arima_ <- auto.arima(L_ts, d = 1 , ic = c("aicc", "aic", "bic"))
  checkresiduals(L_arima_)
}

    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(3,1,0) with drift
Q* = 6.3444, df = 4, p-value = 0.1749

Model df: 3.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,1) with drift
Q* = 4.0655, df = 5, p-value = 0.54

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 8.9855, df = 7, p-value = 0.2537

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.7238, df = 7, p-value = 0.6936

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(2,1,1) with drift
Q* = 3.0223, df = 4, p-value = 0.5541

Model df: 3.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 11.302, df = 7, p-value = 0.126

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 1.7039, df = 7, p-value = 0.9744

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)
Q* = 3.6921, df = 6, p-value = 0.7183

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 7.439, df = 6, p-value = 0.2821

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)
Q* = 1.7423, df = 6, p-value = 0.9418

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.1879, df = 6, p-value = 0.6513

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 10.865, df = 6, p-value = 0.09264

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 6.1309, df = 6, p-value = 0.4087

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 16.595, df = 7, p-value = 0.0202

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 7.4091, df = 6, p-value = 0.2847

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 2.1361, df = 6, p-value = 0.9068

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 8.8654, df = 7, p-value = 0.2625

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)
Q* = 8.3623, df = 6, p-value = 0.2127

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(2,1,0)
Q* = 9.664, df = 5, p-value = 0.08533

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 10.549, df = 7, p-value = 0.1596

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 1.2637, df = 7, p-value = 0.9894

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)
Q* = 7.853, df = 6, p-value = 0.2491

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0) with drift
Q* = 5.0726, df = 6, p-value = 0.5345

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 6.1988, df = 7, p-value = 0.5167

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 3.5895, df = 7, p-value = 0.8257

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 5.5433, df = 7, p-value = 0.594

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 3.2576, df = 7, p-value = 0.8602

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.8597, df = 6, p-value = 0.5619

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 15.738, df = 7, p-value = 0.02762

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 3.725, df = 7, p-value = 0.8108

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 7.4324, df = 7, p-value = 0.3853

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 7.3444, df = 6, p-value = 0.2902

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.7472, df = 6, p-value = 0.5766

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 4.1042, df = 7, p-value = 0.7677

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 7.4139, df = 6, p-value = 0.2843

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(2,1,0)
Q* = 2.7117, df = 5, p-value = 0.7443

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 13.773, df = 7, p-value = 0.05537

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 6.5756, df = 7, p-value = 0.4744

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 4.052, df = 6, p-value = 0.6696

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 8.0445, df = 7, p-value = 0.3287

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 9.129, df = 7, p-value = 0.2435

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.1279, df = 7, p-value = 0.7649

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 5.1692, df = 7, p-value = 0.6393

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 3.7512, df = 7, p-value = 0.8079

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 18.934, df = 7, p-value = 0.008395

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 11.041, df = 7, p-value = 0.1369

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 2.4394, df = 6, p-value = 0.8752

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 2.4946, df = 6, p-value = 0.8691

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1) with drift
Q* = 2.5885, df = 6, p-value = 0.8584

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 8.5893, df = 7, p-value = 0.2835

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)
Q* = 6.422, df = 6, p-value = 0.3776

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 3.6329, df = 7, p-value = 0.821

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 8.3603, df = 6, p-value = 0.2129

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 7.5872, df = 6, p-value = 0.2699

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 9.7701, df = 7, p-value = 0.202

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 6.9454, df = 7, p-value = 0.4346

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1) with drift
Q* = 6.0911, df = 6, p-value = 0.4131

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 2.558, df = 7, p-value = 0.9227

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.6468, df = 7, p-value = 0.703

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 7.959, df = 7, p-value = 0.3362

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 10.06, df = 7, p-value = 0.1852

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 6.553, df = 6, p-value = 0.3642

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 6.5825, df = 7, p-value = 0.4736

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 3.6599, df = 7, p-value = 0.818

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 1.0531, df = 5, p-value = 0.9582

Model df: 2.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 12.483, df = 6, p-value = 0.05203

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 9.2991, df = 6, p-value = 0.1574

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 8.3592, df = 7, p-value = 0.302

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)
Q* = 6.3, df = 6, p-value = 0.3904

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.0249, df = 6, p-value = 0.6733

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 16.039, df = 7, p-value = 0.02476

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 8.7443, df = 7, p-value = 0.2715

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 2.8823, df = 7, p-value = 0.8957

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 10.934, df = 7, p-value = 0.1415

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 4.4354, df = 7, p-value = 0.7285

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 1.2756, df = 7, p-value = 0.9891

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 7.0316, df = 6, p-value = 0.3179

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 10.814, df = 7, p-value = 0.1469

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 5.2601, df = 7, p-value = 0.6283

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 7.4431, df = 7, p-value = 0.3842

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 7.9662, df = 7, p-value = 0.3356

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 6.4268, df = 7, p-value = 0.4909

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 20.704, df = 7, p-value = 0.004235

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 4.8338, df = 7, p-value = 0.6802

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 4.9502, df = 6, p-value = 0.5502

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 10.317, df = 7, p-value = 0.1713

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 7.1274, df = 7, p-value = 0.4157

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 1.0352, df = 7, p-value = 0.9942

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 5.9277, df = 6, p-value = 0.4313

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(1,1,0)
Q* = 9.6719, df = 6, p-value = 0.1392

Model df: 1.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(0,1,0)
Q* = 11.657, df = 7, p-value = 0.1124

Model df: 0.   Total lags used: 7


    Ljung-Box test

data:  Residuals from ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,0)[12]
Q* = 3.5928, df = 4, p-value = 0.4639

Model df: 3.   Total lags used: 7

for(i in 1:92){
  L_ts <- ts(L[[i]]$KWH_PERIOD, frequency = 12, start= c(2019,01,01))
  L_arima <- auto.arima(L_ts,d = 1, stationary = FALSE, seasonal = TRUE, ic = c("aicc", "aic", "bic"), stepwise = TRUE, nmodels = 100, trace = FALSE, approximation = TRUE)
  modelforcast <- forecast(L_arima)
  plot(modelforcast, xlab = "Date", ylab = "KWH", sub = unique(L[[i]]$NAME))
}

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